Is the Royals pitching really *THAT* IMPROVED?

One of the most important areas one must overcome before deciding whether or not the Royals truly have upgraded their pitching staff is to remove the concept of less homeruns being hit off of Royals starters.  Last year Bruce Chen was 4th in the League, giving up 33; Jeremy Guthrie was 8th with 30; Hochevar was 15th with 27.  Giving up the “big one,” can often be detrimental and cause a team to lose.  Out of the top 15 on that list, only 41% of the pitchers were on playoff teams and only 3 of them had an ERA under 4.00.  Not good odds for a team wanting to make the playoffs.

Let’s look at the breakdown of stats for the Royals rotation  and where they rank within the entire MLB:

Shields is a high homerun pitcher (2012–25th with 25)
Santana is a high homerun pitcher (2012–1st with 39)
Guthrie is a high homerun pitcher (2012–8th with 30: Caveat 2/3 of them in Colorado last season BUT he was 2nd with 35 in 2009)
Davis is a above average homerun pitcher (2011–T-23rd with 23)
Mendoza is an average homerun pitcher (2012 T-105th with 15: Caveat only 166 innings)

What’s that equate to?

Adam Dunn 41

Alex Rios, 25

Paul Konerko, 26

Dayan Viciedo, 25

Gordan Beckham, 16 (You have to consider him if you consider Moose a power hitter)

Detroit’s Big 5

Miguel Cabrera, 44
Prince Fielder, 30

Delmon Young, 18

Austin Jackson 16 (Moose comparison)

Tori Hunter, 16

Nick Swisher, 24

Mark Reynolds, 23

Carlos Santana, 18

Asdrubal Cabrera, 16
Drew Stubbs, 14 (136 games)

Royals fans REALLY need to be prepared for the long ball.  Period.

Logic would think this negates about 10 wins easy from the projected .500 finish everyone is hoping for.  Why?  Because the Royals DO NOT have the power to combat with these teams homerun wise.  1 Homerun in three games?  Sheesh…

Now, on to Ervin Santana.  Personal note: EXTREME DISLIKE AND DISAPPROVAL, and concern should be raise of whether he might end up being this year’s “Hoch.”  Pray this is completely off-base, but time will speak volumes.  He is the highest paid pitcher on the team (3 mil more than Shields BTW) and Yost is going to look for EVERY excuse in the book to justify this FA Acquisition.  By July, Royals fans may be screaming to have someone else into the Rotation (including Hoch).

Speaking of July, here’s a prediction for the Royals Post All-Star Rotation:

Shields, Guthrie, Mendoza, Chen, (Will) Smith.

Santana=cocky.  Although that’s just the first impression, it is a tad worrisome.  The wool over KC Fans eyes will lift every so slightly as the starts pile up and the runs cross the plate when he’s pitching.  He may have been an all-star in 2008, but the Angels could overcome those HR’s with the “pop” they had.  That year, they had players with as many homeruns as many Royals with 30-40% less games played.

Here’s this week’s “Wool”

Directly from the Kansas City Star:

“Yeah, he’s going to give up homers because he throws strikes,” manager Ned Yost said. “He’s on the attack, and he throws strikes. The majority of his pitches were in really good locations.